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Obamacare subsidies by the numbers – who gets how much?

Via @CPearsonAvalere, a state-by-state look at how much premiums would shoot up if Halbig stands: pic.twitter.com/xURNRN0wS7 — Dan Diamond (@ddiamond) July 22, 2014 Today’s rulings about the legality of health insurance subsidies may turn out to be a passing moment of glee or horror, depending on your view of the Affordable Care Act. Now that […]

By on July 22, 2014

Today’s rulings about the legality of health insurance subsidies may turn out to be a passing moment of glee or horror, depending on your view of the Affordable Care Act. Now that at least some people have been helped by the law, it will be harder to take away its benefits.

To understand how these subsidies work for individuals who actually use them to get health insurance, I pulled together a few numbers.

Question #1 – How many people get these price breaks?

According to a Washington Post analysis of a report from HHS, most of people who bought a policy on the federal exchange got a subsidy:

The government has previously reported that 87 percent of the 5.4 million Americans who chose a health plan through the federal health exchange qualified for some financial help.

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Question #2 – Are these subsidies a little help or a lot?

The subsidies are the difference between having insurance and not having it:

The health officials said they have not yet analyzed the incomes of people who qualified for the subsidies. But overall, the report shows, the average monthly tax credit this year is $264. Without the federal help, the average premium chosen by people eligible for a tax credit would have been $346 per month, and the subsidy lowered the consumers’ premiums, on average, by 76 percent. The result is that four out of five people with subsidies are paying premiums of no more than $100 a month — although that does not include money they might need to spend for insurance deductibles and other out-of-pocket costs.

Question 3 – What is the state-by-state breakdown of subsidies?

Nicholas Bagley at The Incidental Economist has an interesting and fair analysis of the subsidies question as well as information on who gets the subsidies.

Since the average estimated tax credit in 2014 is $4,700, the ruling threatens to deprive tens of thousands of people in Texas, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, and many other states of the means to buy health insurance.

Caroline Pearson of Avalere also shared some interesting stats about subsidies:

The Washington Post published an interactive map earlier this year focused on sources of health insurance around the country. You can sort on several criteria including state or federal exchange, Medicaid expansion decision and percentage of potential enrollees who signed up for insurance.

The Kaiser Family Foundation’s map (below) shows how few states launched their own marketplaces.