Hospitals

Study: Hospitals admissions could be down 10.5% for 2020

As hospital admissions rebound to near-normal levels, total admissions are still expected to be down 10.5% for the year, according to an analysis by the Epic Health Research Network and the Kaiser Family Foundation.

As hospital admissions recover from their precipitous lows at the beginning of the pandemic, they’re still expected to be down 10.5% for the full year, according to a new analysis by the Epic Health Research Network and the Kaiser Family Foundation.

At their lowest point, during the week of April 11, hospital admissions had fallen to 68.6% of what would be expected in a normal year, as many states paused non-urgent procedures and patients were reluctant to seek care.

By July, they increased to 94.3% of predicted levels, but then declined again in August to 90.8%, according to electronic medical records data from 162 hospitals in 21 states.

Hospital admissions are expected to be down 10.5% for 2020, according to an analysis by the Epic Health Research Network and the Kaiser Family Foundation.

In particular, patients age 65 and older have been hesitant to go to the hospital for non-urgent care. For them, hospital admissions not related to Covid-19 declined by 50% at the lowest point and have only rebounded to 80% of predicted levels.

Earlier this year, Epic found that fewer patients were going to the emergency room for heart attacks and stroke. Between March and early April, reported admissions for heart attacks were down 45% and strokes were down 38%. But by late May, those numbers had nearly returned to normal levels, reaching 92% of historical levels for heart attacks and 87% for strokes.

“Our research shows that there was a decline in hospital admissions when non-emergency procedures were canceled or postponed early in the pandemic,” Dr. Sam Butler, vice president of clinical informatics at Epic, said in a news release. “The data show which areas of the country experienced the steepest declines and where admissions came back to nearly pre-pandemic levels.”

In total, the reduced admissions between March and August account for nearly 7% of the total predicted admissions for 2020. If hospitals continue to see patients at the current rate, admission levels will be down 10.5% by the end of 2020. But those numbers could decrease again if the pandemic worsens during the winter months, and communities once again cancel elective procedures to conserve hospital resources and protective equipment.

How hospitals will fare by the end of the year is not clear. Many rural hospitals, which were on the brink before the pandemic, have been crushed by the decrease in patients, though $175 billion in relief funds and advanced payments from Medicare have helped cushion the blow for some.

“Hospitals are on course to see an overall decline in admissions this year of 10% or more,” Karyn Schwartz, a senior fellow at the Kaiser Family Foundation and a co-author of the analysis, said in a news release. “That has meant less care for Americans and lower revenue for hospitals, but the substantial federal relief directed to hospitals should soften the blow to their bottom lines significantly.”

 

Photo credit: Baris Ozer, Getty Images

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