How Senior Care Bounced Back – And What Smart Leaders Can Learn From It

It’s the biggest but least-known business comeback story of this century: Senior housing is suddenly booming.

Five years after being throttled by Covid lockdown, demand for senior housing soared to a record high this year. The number of occupied senior housing units has reached the highest level ever, with 625,800 at the end of the second quarter of 2025. Occupancy rates exceed 88 percent, a 13 percent increase since the depths of the pandemic. 

Increasing demand for all types of senior housing is pushing prices upward, with rental rates for independent living communities rising 4.25 percent this year, to $4,402 per month, and a 4 percent increase for assisted living communities, to $6,976 per month.

All the signs indicate that housing supplies will tighten even further – and prices will rise. A national construction slowdown, prompted by higher interest rates and investment skittishness leftover from the pandemic, means only 809 new units were added nationally in the past three months. That’s the smallest senior housing inventory increase in the past 20 years. 

Boom and bust cycles have been a fact of life for many American industries, but few have rebounded as fast as the senior housing business, which includes developments for independent living, assisted living, and nursing care. 

During Covid lockdown our hearts were broken far too often when the frailest among us succumbed to the contagious virus. Seniors grew wary of community living, and many postponed procedures that required short-term acute recovery care. Occupancy rates plunged. Operators of hundreds of nursing homes filed for bankruptcy, and construction of new projects fell to historic lows.

But when the pandemic ended, powerful demographics began to take over. The long-awaited silver tsunami of baby boomer retirements is finally cresting ashore. 

More Americans are turning 65 now than at any time in history – 11,200 Americans every day, more than 4 million per year, a total of 76 million people in the biggest senior generation ever. Within 10 years, the number of people over age 65 will exceed the number under 18 for the first time in US history.

All these boomers need to live somewhere. And with life expectancy rising again, post-pandemic, Americans increasingly are turning to senior communities. 

In contrast to prior generations, boomers had been more resistant to moving into senior communities, preferring instead to age in place at home. The in-home healthcare business is growing significantly, but it faces a serious hurdle – a shortage of workers. Six of 10 home care agencies report a significant staffing crunch, with one study reporting a national shortage of 446,000 home health aides.

Home healthcare also gets more expensive as people grow older: A common rule of thumb is that in-home care costs more than community living if you need more than 40 hours of care per week. 

Propelled by a strong tailwind of demographics, senior housing is attracting billions of dollars of investment from private equity and REITs. Healthcare REITs have quadrupled in size since 2000. Real estate investors often favor reliability over big jackpots, but last year they got both, with healthcare REITs posting a total return of 24.2 percent. 

Of course, big outside capital investment in the senior housing sector can come with downsides, too. Many investors new to the healthcare sector want to reduce the business to numbers. 

Ultimately, though, senior housing is about people – their health, trust, comfort, and safety. Senior care offers some of life’s highest highs and lowest lows. There aren’t many other businesses so directly tied to the well-being of its customers, 24/7, every day, every night, and every season.

The senior housing industry now faces the opportunity of a lifetime. The business may be about housing, but the success or failure will be decided by the happiness of tens of millions of seniors.

Photo by Getty Images

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