To the dismay of many, in early May, the House passed the American Health Care Act, otherwise known as the GOP’s plan to repeal and replace Obamacare. The House did so without waiting for a score from the Congressional Budget Office.
But now we have one.
The nonpartisan CBO has unveiled its report, which claims that by 2026, 23 million more Americans would be left without coverage than if the ACA remained in place. By 2026, a total of 51 million Americans under 65 would be uninsured, compared to the 28 million who would be uninsured under the ACA.
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CBO also claims the AHCA would shrink the U.S. budget deficit by $119 billion. The AHCA has to save $2 billion over the next decade to meet requirements for budget reconciliation, through which the Senate can pass a bill with only 51 votes, according to CNN.
These numbers are only slightly better than CBO’s score of the original AHCA bill that was revealed in March. CBO estimated that version would leave 24 million Americans without insurance in the next decade. When CBO initially scored the AHCA, it claimed the bill would save $337 billion by 2026, but that amount was later revised to $150 billion, according to NPR.
A few other noteworthy points from the score:
- The AHCA would cut Medicaid spending by $834 billion over 10 years. It would also result in 14 million fewer Medicaid enrollees by 2026, which is “a reduction of about 17 percent relative to the number under current law.”
- Premiums would increase by an average of 20 percent in 2018 and 5 percent in 2019. But beginning in 2020, “average premiums would depend in part on any waivers granted to states and on how those waivers were implemented and in part on what share of the funding available from the Patient and State Stability Fund was applied to premium reduction.”
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Unsurprisingly, CBO’s score has drawn criticism from various parties, including prominent healthcare groups.
In a statement, American Hospital Association president and CEO Rick Pollack said:
The latest CBO estimates on the impact of the American Health Care Act only reinforce our deep concerns about the importance of maintaining coverage for those vulnerable patients who need it. … We cannot support legislation that the CBO clearly indicates would jeopardize that coverage for millions of Americans. We continue to urge the Senate to work together in a manner that provides coverage to those who need it and ensures that the most vulnerable are not left behind.
The American Medical Association agreed. Association president Dr. Andrew Gurman said:
Today’s estimates from the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office show that last-minute changes to the AHCA made by the House offered no real improvements. Millions of Americans will become uninsured — with low-income families on Medicaid being hit the hardest. We urge the Senate to ensure that any changes made to current law do not cause Americans to lose access to affordable, meaningful health insurance coverage.
With the new CBO score and heavy backlash from across the board, the fate of the AHCA isn’t looking too hot. We’ll have to see what the Senate decides to do.
Photo: BackyardProduction, Getty Images
