Policy

Obamacare: FantasySCOTUS league, well-kept secrets and possible stock market winners and losers

Las Vegas is not offering any odds on how the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on the Affordable Care Act, but there is another informed source of predictions. The crowdsourced predictions from FantasySCOTUS expects the court to overrule the individual mandate but support the expansion of Medicaid. FantasySCOTUS.net from the Harlan Institute is an Internet […]

Las Vegas is not offering any odds on how the U.S. Supreme Court will rule on the Affordable Care Act, but there is another informed source of predictions. The crowdsourced predictions from FantasySCOTUS expects the court to overrule the individual mandate but support the expansion of Medicaid.

FantasySCOTUS.net from the Harlan Institute is an Internet Supreme Court Fantasy League. During the October 2009 Supreme Court term, more than 5,000 attorneys, law students and other avid Supreme Court followers made more than 11,000 predictions for all 81 cases decided. Based on these data, FantasySCOTUS correctly predicted the outcome in more than 50 percent of the cases decided, and the top-ranked predictors forecasted 75 percent of the cases correctly. Read more about the methodology here.

Intrade also shows almost 80 percent odds that the individual mandate will be ruled unconstitutional.

Avik Roy of Forbes will be live-blogging the rulings released today starting at 10.

You can also watch live commentary at SCOTUSblog sponsored by Bloomberg Law.

Politicians and lobbyists are readying multiple press releases  in the event of any ruling, keeping their enthusiasm in check and trying for Zen.

Philly.com looks at the impact of the decision from the stock market point of view.

At The Health Care Blog, a law professor debates how the justices’ perceptions of their public image could affect the decision.

MediaMatters points out that reporters have focused on the rulings against the law, when there have been more federal rulings in favor of it.

In the 24-hour news cycle, it is amazing that there has not been leaks about the decision from the nine Supreme Court justices and about 36 other people who work for the court.

If you have any energy left for reasoned analysis that is longer than 140 characters, American Healthline has FiveKeyReads about the healthcare law.

 

 

 


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